Scientific Use of Market Odds to Bet on Horses
Horse racing is an incredibly complex sport when it comes to the types of variables that need to be accounted for to produce consistent successful results. Many people’s personal horserace betting system is to simply go by whatever feels good or go by a horse that has won several races in a row. Both can be statistical errors of the highest degree. Using the scientific principle of market odds and statistical analysis, you can improve your horserace betting system significantly. So, what are some of the odds that you should look at?
One of the things that you need to look at right off the bat is what the morning odds are for each horse. Statistically speaking, most horses that are favoured to win on that given morning are not the most likely to win the race. Although the odds show in their favour, often, the favourite horse is not the winner. A huge number of horses with odds of 20 to 1 the morning of the race can possibly take the prize. This is good news for you as you learn to use statistical marketing techniques to enhance your racehorse betting system because that means more profit for you.
Statistics are not the statistics of any given day; rather you need to look at the statistical likelihood of a horse over its career, over the distances, with the use of certain jockeys, and how these have come to play under similar circumstances in the past. By taking in a much broader view of the horse’s career and previous successes or failed races, you can begin to build a model and predict the likelihood the horse will win other races under other similar conditions. Doing your research beforehand will help you avoid the desire to bet on morning favourites.
Is the horse a beaten favourite?
This is another very important consideration because a horse that has been an overall favourite that has been beaten several times in a row will tend to lose that favourite status. However, this is again a good opportunity for you to make back your money as the horse has the potential to win as it has won in the past. A horse that has lost two, three, or even four races in a row when it was the favourite is more likely to perform well again.
Like all statistical analysis there are certainly data anomalies; however, when you have seen a winning or favourite horse lose several times in a row, the horse has either been off its game for a little bit, in which case it will come back, and when it does you need to have your betting stubs ready; or the horse is at the end of its career and will not win again. However, if the owners of the horse believe there is an appreciable difference in the quality of their racer, they would not likely keep sending it back for a race. No one sends a horse to a racetrack to lose. By placing your bets on a previous favourite, you increase your odds of making significant amounts of money with your racehorse betting system when that favourite proves again why he earned that title.
Can the favourite be beat?
Part of determining the odds of making back your money is to ask yourself if the favourite can be beaten. Has the favourite been beaten by a previous horse in a previous race? Is that horse at the track today? You need to make an accurate statistical model to give yourself the greatest odds of winning with your racehorse betting system. You need to look not just at the horse of choice but also the horses it will be competing against. Horses that have been favourites in previous races are great – that’s if you want to bet against the favourite of today. A good rule of thumb is if you can find a reason to not bet on the current favourite, you should do so. Few people make back any significant winnings when they bet on the favourite.
Only by betting on horses that are not the favourite can you ensure that you recoup your hard-earned cash. Another good rule of thumb is to see if a horse was at 2 to 1 odds in a previous race. If there is a horse that was considered the second favourite, then betting on that one can also improve your odds of winning. Remember, you’re looking at a horse over its career so you want to see how often it has won overall, not just its latest stretch.
With these tips and tricks, you’ll be able to increase your racehorse betting system significantly and start learning how to use statistical probability to improve your wins.